Twins listen to trade offers for right-hander Pablo Lopez“, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Twins might move him, but it suggests it’s at least a possibility.
As recently as mid-November, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the idea of the Twins removing a notable player from their roster in a blockbuster trade. He recognized Lopez; Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton As a “key” player on the roster who is unlikely to move. “Everybody always asks, when are you going to be a team on a payroll like ours,” Falvey said. “I’m very confident that these guys are going to be the guys that we need to do what we want to do on the field. Part of that. They’re going to hopefully give us some momentum for the success that we want. … I feel really good about those guys.
Despite this public framework, it’s understandable that management could at least consider other possibilities. According to reports, the Twins’ salary next year could be around $130, the same as in 2024.
guys like Chris Paddack and Christian Vazquez have been mentioned as potential trade candidates who could help the club get to the level they want, although neither is likely to have huge trade value. Paddack will make $7.5MM next year, the final year of his contract, but he hasn’t been at his best in a while. He had a 3.33 ERA in his rookie season in 2019, but his ERA was closer to 5.00 over the next two seasons. He subsequently missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to the following reasons: tommy john Surgery. He returned to the mound in 2024 but finished the year with a 4.99 ERA.
Vazquez has one year left on his contract and will earn $10 per year. He is a strong defender behind the plate but has hit just .222/.265/.322 over the past two seasons. This production translates into a wRC+ of 63, showing him 37% below league average.
Trading one or both of these players could help the Twins address their budget crunch, but it likely won’t result in a huge return. Lopez, on the other hand, should have a lot of appeal. He is expected to earn $21.5MM per year over the next three years, with $64.5MM remaining on the contract.
That’s a very good price for a pitcher who is entering his age-29 season and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past five years. Since 2020, he has pitched 719 1/3 innings, with a 3.70 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, and 45.6% ground ball rate. FanGraphs rates him with 14.7 wins over reliever during that span, which ranks him 13th among all pitchers in the majors during that span.
Starting pitching has been particularly expensive so far this winter. Nathan Eovaldi Just got three years and $75MM. His numbers have been fairly similar to Lopez’s in recent years, but he’s much older and heading into his age-35 season. pitchers like Kikuchi Yusen and Luis Severino Their results are obviously worse than Lopez/Eovaldi, but both signed three-year contracts, with Kikuchi getting $63 in guaranteed money and Severino getting $67 in guaranteed money.
It seems fair to conclude that a strong market could result in the Twins getting some interesting offers that could at least make them reconsider their stance on Lopez. Of course, the same things that make him attractive to other clubs also make him extremely valuable in Minnesota. The club could certainly keep him and trade for players like Paddack and/or Vazquez, but perhaps they’ll receive an offer for Lopez that allows them to both lower their salary to where it needs to be while also Adds significant returns that help the team in the short and long term.
As of now, the rotation consists of Lopez, Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simon Woods Richardson. Trading Lopez or Paddack would weaken the team, but it would also open up a spot for a young pitcher like this Zebby Matthews or David Festaboth set to debut in 2024. Huasca Inoa and Darren McCowan in the mix.
Cutting Lopez is certainly not what the front office wants, and there is no indication they are touting him. But the hot starting pitching market seems to make it more difficult for clubs to consider starting pitching trades than they expected. name like Luis Castillo, Dylan Seth, Jesus Luzardo and Framber Valdez There have been some surprising rumors lately. A team willing to listen doesn’t mean a trade will happen, as Valdez and the Astros have shown, as he’s now clearly off the table. However, it’s an interesting turn this offseason, with free agents like this corbyn burns, Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea Still available.
