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“There are only two of us left among the leaders. Now, it’s me and Vladimir Putin. This was the immodest verdict of Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week.
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are likely to question the Turkish president’s global ranking. At the regional level, however, Erdogan is one of two strongman leaders reshaping the Middle East. The other is his hated rival, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu.
Erdogan’s current arrogance stems from his role in Syria. Türkiye is the only regional power to fully support Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that overthrew Assad’s regime. Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin visited Damascus days after HTS took power.
Erdogan has long aspired to reestablish Turkish power in the territories of the old Ottoman Empire. For him, overthrowing Assad opens up a new path to regional influence. It could also pay dividends at home – weakening the Kurds in Syria, easing Turkey’s refugee problem and helping him stay president after 2028.
Türkiye’s alliance with Islamist groups such as HTS and the Muslim Brotherhood is seen as a serious threat by Israel and conservative Gulf monarchies. Israel has moved to destroy Syria’s military capabilities, bombard its navy and air force, and seize territory beyond the Golan Heights, which Israel has occupied since 1967.
The Israeli government describes its measures as preventive and defensive. But Netanyahu, like Erdogan, sees opportunity ahead. “There is something tectonic happening here, an earthquake the likes of which has not happened in the hundred years since the Sykes-Picot Agreement,” he said last week, referring to the 1916 partition of the Ottoman Empire. The Anglo-French agreement sounds significant. As the Middle East descends into turmoil, supporters of Greater Israel see an opportunity to once again redraw the region’s borders. Haaretz’s Aluf Benn writes that Netanyahu “appears to be seeking a legacy as the leader who expanded Israel’s borders 50 years after its retreat.”
The settler movement in Netanyahu’s coalition government is pushing for Israel to reoccupy parts of Gaza. The incoming Trump administration may give Israel the green light to formally annex parts of the occupied West Bank. The “temporary” occupation of Syrian land may prove to be permanent.
Further afield, Netanyahu will see an opportunity for a final reckoning with Iran. The Islamic Republic is in its weakest position in decades. It faces domestic opposition and will be rattled by the collapse of the Syrian dictatorship. Tehran has seen its allies — Hamas, Hezbollah and now Assad — dealt a devastating blow.
Iran may respond to the loss of its regional proxies by accelerating its acquisition of nuclear weapons. But that could invite attack from Israel. Israelis are in a confident, aggressive mood after the Netanyahu government launched a successful attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon — an operation that the Biden administration warned against.
Over the past year, Israel has demonstrated its ability to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously—including Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran and now Syria. Israel is also the only nuclear-armed country in the region and currently enjoys almost full support from the United States.
After the disaster of the October 7 Hamas attack, Netanyahu’s chances of going down in history as a successful leader seemed slim. He is controversial at home and abroad and is currently on trial in Israel for corruption.
Like Erdogan, Netanyahu is a ruthless political survivor. Each first man came to power decades ago and believed himself to be the man of destiny. However, their dreams of regional dominance face similar weaknesses. Israel and Türkiye are non-Arab countries in areas with a majority Arab population. The Arab world had no interest in rebuilding the Ottoman Empire. Israel remains an outsider in the Middle East, feared, mistrusted and often hated.
Türkiye and Israel’s economic bases are also too weak to truly pursue regional dominance. Türkiye’s economy is suffering from inflation. Despite Israel’s technological and military might, it is a small country with a population of less than 10 million.
The competing ambitions of Erdogan and Netanyahu could easily collide in Syria. It has the potential to become a battleground for regional power competition, as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states also have stakeholders there.
Last week, as Turks cheered the fall of Damascus and Israelis were decimating the Syrian army, Saudi Arabia celebrated a more peaceful achievement, being chosen to host the 2034 World Cup.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states may feel more directly threatened by Türkiye’s Islamist alliance than by Israel’s territorial ambitions. But Riyadh knows that Israel’s attack on Gaza has alarmed much of the Arab world. Moving closer to Netanyahu to stop Erdogan would be controversial, especially if the Israelis also bury any prospects of a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Israel and Türkiye have strong military capabilities. But Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have deep pockets. Whatever action Riyadh decides to take will likely affect the Middle East more fundamentally than the actions of Erdogan and Netanyahu.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
