US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Expected to Remain Flat in 2024, Missed Climate Goals Imminent
A recent analysis by the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm, has projected that the United States will barely see a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in 2024. This development puts the country’s ability to meet its climate goals in jeopardy, particularly as the incoming Trump administration is likely to prioritize fossil fuels over clean energy.
According to the study, the US economy saw a net fall in emissions of just 0.2% across the board, with a decrease in manufacturing output offset by increased air and road travel and rising electricity demand. Despite the slight decline, emissions remain below pre-pandemic levels and about 20% below levels in 2005, the base year for US commitments under the Paris Agreement. However, the study highlights the urgent need for decarbonization across all industries to meet the agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The report notes that the United States must achieve an annual emissions reduction of 7.6% between 2025 and 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of reducing emissions by 50-52% by 2030. This requires an unprecedented level of reduction outside of a recession. However, with Trump’s plans to roll back President Joe Biden’s green policies, including provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, the country may only achieve 24-40% emissions reductions by 2035.
In comparison, other major emitters such as Germany and the European Union are expected to make significant progress in reducing their emissions. Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions are forecast to fall by 3% in 2024, following a 10% annual decline the previous year. The EU is expected to experience a 3.8% decline in 2024.
The Rhodium Group’s findings echo the reality that US emissions reductions have been modest compared to other major emitters. Despite some positive developments, such as a greater share of green energy on the grid, the continued growth of air conditioning demand and increased electricity consumption have offset these gains.
The implications of this stagnation are dire, as the world inches closer to the 1.5°C threshold. Climate scientist Michael Mann welcomed the continued decoupling of growth and emissions but noted that “at least emissions are not falling nearly as fast as they need to be.” Debbie Weir, acting US director of the World Resources Institute, warned, “The simple mediocrity of emissions puts the United States further away from meeting its climate commitments.”
Rachel Cleetus, policy director for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, described the findings as “sobering,” highlighting the need for immediate action to address the crisis. She noted that 2024 is expected to be the hottest year on record, with temperature records being broken year after year.
The Rhodium Group’s analysis serves as a wake-up call for policymakers, emphasizing the urgent need for drastic reductions in emissions. As the United States continues to lag behind its peers, it is crucial that Biden’s climate policies are preserved and expanded upon to ensure a sustainable future.
FAQ
Q: What are the Rhodium Group’s projections for US greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?
A: The group predicts a net fall in emissions of 0.2% in 2024, with a decline in manufacturing output offset by increased air and road travel and rising electricity demand.
Q: What are the implications of the Rhodium Group’s findings for the United States’ climate goals?
A: The findings suggest that the US is unlikely to meet its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, highlighting the need for decarbonization across all industries to meet the agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Q: What are the plans of the incoming Trump administration regarding climate policies?
A: Trump has expressed his intention to roll back President Joe Biden’s green policies, including provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, which would channel hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy.
Q: How do other major emitters compare to the United States in terms of emissions reductions?
A: Germany and the European Union are expected to make significant progress in reducing their emissions, with Germany’s forecast to fall by 3% in 2024 and the EU expected to experience a 3.8% decline.
Q: What are some potential solutions to address the stagnation in US emissions reductions?
A: The report highlights the need for increased investment in clean energy and transportation, as well as a greater focus on decarbonization across all industries.
Json-ld FAQ Page:
{
“@context”: “https://schema.org”,
“@type”: “FAQPage”,
“mainEntity”: [
{
“@type”: “Question”,
“name”: “What are the Rhodium Group’s projections for US greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?”,
“acceptedAnswer”: {
“@type”: “Answer”,
“text”: “The group predicts a net fall in emissions of 0.2% in 2024, with a decline in manufacturing output offset by increased air and road travel and rising electricity demand.”
}
},
{
“@type”: “Question”,
“name”: “What are the implications of the Rhodium Group’s findings for the United States’ climate goals?”,
“acceptedAnswer”: {
“@type”: “Answer”,
“text”: “The findings suggest that the US is unlikely to meet its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, highlighting the need for decarbonization across all industries to meet the agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
}
},
{
“@type”: “Question”,
“name”: “What are the plans of the incoming Trump administration regarding climate policies?”,
“acceptedAnswer”: {
“@type”: “Answer”,
“text”: “Trump has expressed his intention to roll back President Joe Biden’s green policies, including provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, which would channel hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy.”
}
},
{
“@type”: “Question”,
“name”: “How do other major emitters compare to the United States in terms of emissions reductions?”,
“acceptedAnswer”: {
“@type”: “Answer”,
“text”: “Germany and the European Union are expected to make significant progress in reducing their emissions, with Germany’s forecast to fall by 3% in 2024 and the EU expected to experience a 3.8% decline.”
}
},
{
“@type”: “Question”,
“name”: “What are some potential solutions to address the stagnation in US emissions reductions?”,
“acceptedAnswer”: {
“@type”: “Answer”,
“text”: “The report highlights the need for increased investment in clean energy and transportation, as well as a greater focus on decarbonization across all industries.”
}
]
}
Conclusion
The Rhodium Group’s analysis serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for drastic action to address climate change. Despite some positive developments, the stagnation in US greenhouse gas emissions underscore the imperative for policymakers to prioritize decarbonization across all industries. As the world inches closer to the 1.5°C threshold, it is crucial that the United States takes immediate action to reduce emissions and ensure a sustainable future for generations to come.
