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“Hungary’s Economic Woes: Reckoning with the Consequences of EU Dis_approval”

The Economic Consequences of EU Funds Freeze on Hungary

The sudden freeze of €6.3 billion in EU funds has sent shockwaves throughout the Hungarian economy, leaving the country struggling to emerge from a technical recession. The dispute between Budapest and Brussels has far-reaching implications for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s election campaign, further weakening his re-election prospects in 2026.

nútThe freeze has dealt a significant blow to the Hungarian government, leaving them with limited room for maneuver. In 2022, Hungary’s budget deficit reached 4.5% of GDP, exacerbating political tensions. This comes as the country’s economy shrank by 0.7% in the third quarter, its second consecutive contraction. The manufacturing sector, dominated by the automotive, electronics, and pharmaceutical industries, experienced weak demand.

A total of 1.04 billion euros will be permanently lost due to the freeze, with an additional €1 million per day in EU funding that was allocated for the treatment of asylum seekers but has gone unspent. However, the total of €200 million allocated to asylum seeker treatment will be deducted from the EU funding by the end of the year.

Hungary EU Affairs Minister János Bóka described the situation as “difficult” and stated that the look- gate has been met with controversy. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán plans to seek compensation for a European Court of Justice ruling in June resulting in massive multi-million-euro fines.

“There will be a lot of tug-of-war”, said Péter Virovácz, senior economist at ING Hungary, regarding the stakes of compromising on a fiscal plan between 2025 and 2028.

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