Experts warn U.S. could see ‘silent’ coronavirus surge during holidays — and what it means

With the holidays approaching and travel peaking, COVID-19 is once again on the rise across the country. However, the coronavirus outbreak came later than usual this winter, and some experts warned there could be a “silent” surge in transmission during the holidays.

They’re calling it “silence” after a long winter wave of unusually low coronavirus activity this fall. Many people didn’t realize coronavirus levels had risen sharply in the past two weeks, the latest from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wastewater data are used for disease control and prevention displays.

As a result, people may not know they are at increased risk and not get tested if they only have mild symptoms, which could lead to the spread of the virus at holiday gatherings, travel, etc.

As of December 14, 21 states had “high” or “very high” viral activity of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in wastewater, according to CDC data.

“It’s likely that many people will get sick in the next few weeks and not realize it. Most people are not tracking the CDC data, so the only way they will know whether we are in the midst of a wave is if they get sick. experts tell TODAY.com.

Holger added that while data has not yet shown a large-scale surge in COVID-19 in the United States, the country is entering its tenth wave of COVID-19 since the pandemic began.

But there is considerable uncertainty about how severe this year’s winter wave will be and how long it will last. “This is a very dangerous time for a lot of people to be interacting indoors, so we really don’t know how fast the spread is going to be,” Holger said.

There is a risk of “silent” transmission during the holidays

COVID-19 wastewater levels are lower than they were at this time last winter, but have risen sharply over the past two weeks, according to the CDC. Experts say cases are likely to continue to rise.

“As of Friday, December 20, COVID-19 concentrations in wastewater nationwide are at moderate levels,” Dr. Jonathan Yoder, deputy director of CDC’s Division of Infectious Disease Preparedness and Innovation, told TODAY.com. Wastewater data for the previous week were at “low” levels nationally. The Midwest has the highest levels.

“Nationally, COVID-19 levels in wastewater have been rising throughout December, following low levels in October and November,” Yoder added.

The CDC no longer tracks total COVID-19 cases in the U.S. but instead uses wastewater surveillance, positive tests and emergency room visits to estimate transmission levels.

According to CDC data, the positivity rate for new coronavirus tests is 5.6%, an increase of 0.5% from the previous week. Emergency room visits and deaths related to the coronavirus also increased slightly.

“This winter’s wave of epidemics is very different from previous years,” Hoerger explained. COVID-19 outbreaks have followed a similar pattern in past years: Cases began to increase in November, increased steadily, and reached a peak around the end of December or early January. peak.

“Typically, people get about a month’s warning when they see friends and family members infected,” Holger said.

“Transmission rates were surprisingly low in November, so people were kind of lulled into a false sense of security,” he added.

Hoerger said COVID-19 levels are rising about a month later than usual, putting the country into “uncharted territory.”

“You can think of the beginning of this wave as a period of silent transmission where people weren’t really aware of it, and it coincided with the beginning of holiday travel,” he explained.

Hoerger, director of the Pandemic Mitigation Collective, a group that uses COVID-19 predictive models, projects that one in 64 people (1.6%) in the United States will have an active infection as of Dec. 16, and About 750,000 new people were added.

He wrote on X that this wave of COVID-19 came late and “came out of the blue.”

Other experts agree that infections are expected to rise in the coming weeks.

Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told TODAY.com: “We anticipate that these holiday gatherings and travel and all of that will provide opportunities for increases in COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus. “.

“It’s silent (spread) because most infections are mild, so people don’t get tested or treat it like a cold,” Schaffner added.

Experts say that while the surge in COVID-19 cases late this summer provided Americans with some immunity, that immunity may be starting to wane. Currently circulating variants, including descendants of the XEC and FLiRT families, are highly transmissible.

“These current variants are causing many milder infections that are going largely undetected,” Schaffner said, adding that people with mild or no symptoms can still spread the virus to others.

“The contagiousness of these viruses is causing a silent epidemic, if you will,” Schaffner said.

Where COVID-19 is spreading in the United States

According to the latest data from the CDC, five states currently have “very high” wastewater virus activity and 16 states have “high” wastewater virus activity. As of December 14, states with the highest COVID-19 wastewater concentrations include:

“If you see elevated levels of COVID-19 wastewater viral activity in your area, that may indicate a higher risk of infection,” Yoder said.

However, regional differences in wastewater data also depend on the number and specific locations of wastewater monitoring sites being monitored, Hoerger said. Some states have no data, while others have limited coverage. “Take regional differences with a grain of salt,” Holger said.

Experts note that overall, declining testing numbers and reporting lags may make it difficult to accurately track COVID-19 levels.

COVID-19 Symptoms 2024

Experts say the symptoms caused by the prevalent dominant variants XEC and KP.3.1.1 are very similar to those caused by previous omicron subvariants.

Common COVID-19 symptoms include:

• Nausea or loss of appetite

• Loss of taste or smell

Symptoms vary from person to person. Even mild infections can be “debilitating” for several days, Schaffner said.

Although the latest COVID-19 variants appear to cause milder illness, they can still cause severe illness requiring hospitalization. Certain people are at higher risk of serious illness. These include people over 65, people with underlying medical conditions and people who are immunocompromised.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), every time a person is infected with COVID-19, they are at risk of developing long-term COVID-19, which may cause symptoms to persist and persist for weeks or months after infection. reappear.

Are the new COVID-19 boosters effective?

The CDC recommends that everyone 6 months and older receive the updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine.

The new mRNA COVID vaccine is monovalent, meaning it targets one variant – in this case the KP.2 “FLiRT” variant. According to a previous report by TODAY.com, the currently circulating strain is closely related to KP.2, and the new booster should provide good protection.

However, uptake of the new vaccines has been low so far — only 21% of adults in the United States have been vaccinated, according to the latest data from the CDC.

“The best protection is vaccination. Although vaccinated people can sometimes become infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, timely vaccination against COVID-19 can significantly reduce the risk of severe illness, hospitalization, or death from COVID-19,” Yoder said .

How to protect yourself from COVID-19

The CDC says people must take steps to protect themselves and their families when COVID-19 levels rise.

You can take the following steps to avoid infection and prevent spreading COVID-19 to others:

• Stay up to date with the latest information on COVID-19 vaccinations.

• Test if you have symptoms or have been exposed.

• If you are in a high-risk group, seek COVID-19 treatment.

• Practice social distancing.

This article was originally published on TODAY.com