Earlier this offseason, the Cardinals rejected an offer from the Yankees that would have sent Marcus Stroman Fly to St. Louis Nolan ArenadoAccording to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Bryan Hoch. It’s unclear whether Arenado will approve the deal. MLB.com reports that the Cardinals never offered him the star third baseman because they weren’t interested in acquiring Stroman.
That’s not to say negotiations between clubs over Arenado are over. The Yankees still have needs at both corner infield positions. Feinsand, Denton, and Hoch reported that they Paul Goldschmidt At first base. They wrote that signing Goldschmidt could make it more likely that Arenado would waive his no-trade clause and join his former teammate as a corner infield tandem in the Bronx.
Various reports have linked the Yankees to Goldschmidt this week. It appears they will turn to one of their short-term free agent options to upgrade first base. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Thursday that the Yankees are increasingly likely to pursue a cheaper first baseman rather than spending money at the top of the market. Pete Alonso or Christian Walker. The Yankees reportedly preferred Walker to Alonso, but he subsequently joined Houston for $60MM.
Interestingly, Goldschmidt’s asking price itself is a sticking point. Most projections (including MLBTR’s) have him signing a one-year deal heading into his age-37 season. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch reported that Goldschmidt is seeking multiple years in prison. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee he’ll find a two-year deal, which is a tall order for a middling season.
Goldschmidt hit .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs in his final year in St. Louis. He posted the worst strikeout and walk rates of his career, while the overall offense was right up there with league average. Goldschmidt improved in the second half after a dismal start to the season, but the overall numbers are concerning given his age. MLBTR thinks he could get a one-year deal at $15.
Money is also a complicating factor for Arenado. Even if the Yankees sign Goldschmidt and Arenado is willing to play there, they’ll still need to find a satisfying return in St. Louis. The Cardinals owe the eight-time All-Star $64 over the next three seasons, while the Rockies owe the eight-time All-Star $10 in 2025-26. (Colorado’s obligations would carry over if a trade occurs.) $12MM of the Cardinals’ $64MM was extended. MLB.com writes that the net present value of the debt St. Louis owes is about $60MM.
The Cardinals are trying to give up at least the vast majority of this deal. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic report that the Astros would have absorbed roughly $45MM if Arenado had not vetoed a proposed trade with Houston earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports differently, writing that Houston will take home $59MM. In either case, the Cardinals lose most of their money.
Derek Gould of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the Yankees’ level of interest in Arenado depends on how much the Cardinals would shoulder in a trade. While it’s unknown how much the Yankees want St. Louis to take, their offer for Stroman would be a financial balance. The right-hander will make $18 million next season and will trigger his matching player option in 2026 if he pitches 140 innings. An Arenado/Stroman swap would free the Cardinals from the former’s salary through the 2026-27 season, but it wouldn’t represent a significant cut next season.
Arenado’s salary next year is $32MM, $5MM of which is Colorado’s responsibility. Another $6MM was deferred, so the direct savings to St. Louis was only $3MM. The Cardinals could have tried to flip Stroman themselves. The right-hander posted a 4.31 ERA in 154 2/3 innings. His salary is above market, but not too high, but the Cardinals don’t seem to have any interest in this series of moves.
If a player is traded, their competitive balance tax ID will be reset. Assuming the net present value of Arenado’s contract is about three years and $60 million, if the Cardinals don’t take any money, he will create a luxury tax hit of about $20 million for the acquiring team. RosterResource calculates New York’s luxury tax to be approximately $287MM. Signing Goldschmidt or taking the majority of Arenado’s contract would put them outside the final tax bracket of $301MM. Doing both would put them on well over $301MM and pay 110% tax on every dollar spent from that point on.
