It’s no secret the Cardinals are looking for a trade Nolan Arenado this offseason, but negotiations are complicated by the full no-trade clause in his contract. According to a report today by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Brian McTaggart, Arenado informed St. Louis that he won’t give up. Prior to his no-trade clause, the Cards and Astros were discussing a trade that would send him to Houston to join the Astros. The Athletic’s Katie Woo and Chandler Rome provided some additional details.
The Cardinals plan to make 2025 a reset year of sorts, which has made Arenado’s name the subject of trade rumors over the past few months. At last week’s winter meetings, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he intended to try to reach a deal. The idea seems to be mutually beneficial. Arenado, who turns 34 in March, may have a chance to head to a club with a more immediate goal of playing competitive baseball. The Cards could save some money and provide playing time to watch less mature players, e.g. Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker.
But as mentioned earlier, Arenado has a say in the matter through the no-trade clause. Reports emerged last week that he would approve trades with six teams: the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets or Red Sox. It’s unclear if this is an exhaustive list, but the Astros are not among them. According to Wu and Roman reports today, the list originally included the Astros, but they were removed, possibly due to the recent Kyle Tucker trade and uncertainty surrounding Alex Bregman Condition.
Speaking of Bregman, he’s been Houston’s third baseman for a long time, despite some signs that he’s planning on leaving. They expressed a desire to re-sign him multiple times in the years leading up to his free agency, but no deal was ever reached. He remains unsigned, but there was reportedly a gap in negotiations with the club offering him $156 over six years and he was looking for something more in the $200 range.
On top of that, the Astros made a huge trade last week that arguably netted them Bregman to replace the hot corner. After sending Tucker to the Cubs, the Astros got three players back; Isaac Paredes. While Paredes has played all four infield positions, he has played far more at third base than the other three positions combined.
But after that trade, reports surfaced that the Astros were becoming “serious suitors” for Arenado. Since Arenado is known for playing defense at third base, the plan may be to move Paredes to first base, since that’s Houston’s target area as well. Arenado doesn’t appear to be on board though, putting the entire plan on hold for now.
It’s unclear what the full agreement is or why Arenado decided to cancel it. All reports indicate that winning is Arenado’s main motivation for his theoretical next team, and the Astros appear to fit the bill. Despite having just traded Tucker, they still plan to compete again in 2025 and are one of the winningest clubs over the past decade. Maybe his decision had something to do with geography, the Astros sign-stealing scandal or the Astros-Cardinals leak scandal, though those are just speculation. Reports from Wu and Roman suggest he needs more time to make a decision, but it’s not final yet.
Aside from Arenado blocking the trade, the most notable thing about today’s reports is the Cardinals’ apparent willingness to eat money. Arenado will make $74MM over the next three years, but the Rockies will pay $10MM as part of the deal that sent him from Colorado to St. Louis. There are also some extensions, which apparently lower the current value owed from $64 to about $60, according to the MLB.com column. But the Cards are willing to pay 15-20MM, so the Astros only have to pay 40-45MM. The Athletic says the Cards are willing to take $5MM per season for the remainder of the deal, or exactly $15MM.
This is a smart stance for the Cards. While lower wages are their target for the planned reset year, they are expected to be well below recent spending levels. RosterResource projects that 2025 salaries will be nearly $40MM below 2024 levels. Trading Arenado, even if they take some money, would only widen the gap while giving the club a more significant return in young talent.
It could also help the Astros stay under the competitive balance tax, with RosterResource currently putting their number at $225. If they were to accept Arenado’s roughly three-year and $45MM contract, that would increase their numbers by $15MM and bring their base threshold closer to around $241MM.
The main question now is what happens next for each club. Both reports indicate that the Astros and Cardinals will continue to have discussions, but they may have to turn to other options while they remain available, depending on how soon Arenado wants to do something with Houston. Make a decision. The Astros could look to reopen talks with Bregman or turn to a first baseman like Christian Walker. The Cardinals could try to negotiate a new contract with one of the other clubs that Arenado might be less hesitant to join.
Arenado was an MVP finalist a few years ago, but his offense has declined in recent years. In 2022, he hit 30 home runs and slashed .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+. Combined with his superior glove skills, FanGraphs has him with 7.2 more wins that year than his replacement. But over the past two years, he’s hit .269/.320/.426 with a 104 wRC+, just above league average. He’s still worth close to 3 fWAR per year during that time due to defense, but that’s obviously a concerning drop. Most of his home runs have come off the sidelines, so playing in front of the Crawford box in Houston might suit him, but he’s got to want it.
