Syria’s Assad’s fall leaves already weakened Hezbollah even weaker

BEIRUT (AP) — Seriously embattled Hezbollah is unable to help protect longtime ally former Syrian President Bashar Assad from a lightning-fast insurgent overthrow. Lebanon-based militant groups have become even weaker since Assad’s ouster.

Hezbollah has suffered a major blow in its 14-month war with Israel. The fall of Assad, who had close ties to Iran, now reduces Iran’s ability to recover by cutting off vital arms smuggling routes in Syria.

Hezbollah officials are deeply concerned but also defiant.

“What is happening in Syria is a significant and dangerous new development, and understanding why this is happening requires an assessment,” said Hassan Fadlallah, a Lebanese lawmaker who represents Hezbollah’s political wing, as he defended the death of those killed by Israel. The militants said in a speech at the funeral. “Whatever happens in Syria, despite the dangers, will not weaken us.”

Analysts say the decline of Hezbollah, which has been a major political player in Lebanon for decades, will have significant consequences for both Lebanon and Iran, which relies on it as one of several proxy forces to project power in the Middle East. . It’s also a game-changer for Israel, whose sworn enemy on its northern border is now at its most vulnerable moment in decades.

Ties with Syria shape Hezbollah’s rise and fall in power

The Assad dynasty, which has ruled Syria with an iron fist for half a century, has played a crucial role in strengthening Hezbollah’s power. Syria is not only a conduit for Iranian weapons, it is also where Hezbollah trains its fighters and manufactures its own weapons.

As Hezbollah grew stronger, it became a protective force that Assad could rely on in times of crisis. When the civil war broke out in 2011, Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters to support Assad’s forces.

When rebels swept across Syria in early December and captured the city of Homs, a stone’s throw from the Syrian border town where Hezbollah is based, many expected the militants to fight a fierce battle. After all, they did just that in 2013, preventing Assad’s opponents from advancing on Damascus.

This time, Hezbollah is in disarray. Many senior officials, including longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, were killed in Israeli air strikes. Months of Israeli bombing have destroyed much of its military infrastructure. Assad was quickly ousted as Syria’s main international allies, Russia and Iran, stood by while Hezbollah withdrew.

“The fall of the regime marks the end of Iran’s weapons in Syria and Lebanon,” said Lt. Col. Fares al-Bayoush, a Syrian army defector who fought against Assad’s forces and Hezbollah. civil war until 2017, when he was transferred to Syria and Lebanon.

Lebanon begins to grapple with Hezbollah’s ‘new reality’

In Lebanon, the weakening of Hezbollah gives the military an opportunity to regain control it has relinquished, particularly along its southern border. The U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement between the militant group and Israel stipulates that Hezbollah should not have any armed presence along the border, leading to growing calls in Lebanon for the group to disarm.

“For Hezbollah, the game is over,” Lebanese Christian Forces leader Samir Geagea said in a statement on Sunday, hours after the rebels seized Damascus. “Join the Lebanese military to end your status as an armed group and transform yourself into a political party.”

But Hezbollah also faces significant challenges to its long-term influence in Lebanese politics.

Many Lebanese are angry at the group. Critics say Hezbollah broke a pledge to use weapons only to defend Lebanon when it began firing rockets into Israel last year, a day after Hamas, another Iran-backed group, attacked Israel.

According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, nearly 4,000 people died in Lebanon during the war with Israel. Entire towns and villages inhabited by Hezbollah militants and their supporters were razed to the ground. More than 1 million people were displaced, and the country’s economy, which was in poor shape before the war, was in trouble.

“With the collapse of the (Syrian) regime, Hezbollah faces a new reality,” said Firas Maksad of the Middle East Institute.

Maqsad said many Lebanese leaders have yet to realize the magnitude of the changes that have occurred. Even some of Hezbollah’s former allies in parliament have begun to distance themselves from the group.

Gebran Bassil, a lawmaker representing Lebanon’s other main Christian party, the Free Patriotic Movement, said Hezbollah’s loss of arms pipelines from Iran could help Lebanon emerge from regional conflicts.

“Hezbollah should focus on internal affairs, not the wider region,” said Bassil, a former Hezbollah ally.

It may have no choice but to scale back its ambitions. With Assad’s fall, Iran lost control of a corridor of land stretching through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean, giving it an unimpeded route to supply Hezbollah.

“They may be able to fly some stuff in, smuggle some stuff in, but it won’t be on the same scale, not even close,” said Alan Lund, a Syria expert at Century International, a think tank in New York.

For Israel, disrupting Iran’s regional networks has been a key goal, although it is wary of Islamist militants among the rebels who overthrew Assad. Israel on Sunday moved its troops into the demilitarized buffer zone between the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and Syria, calling it a temporary security measure.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad’s fall “a historic day” and said it was “a direct result of our strong actions against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main backers.”